North-East Resilience Report 2026: A 34% Reduction in Conflict Displacement

OSPRE Nigeria's annual flagship research publication — the North-East Resilience Report 2026 — reveals a 34% reduction in conflict-related displacement across the six North-East states over the past two years. The report attributes this significant decline to early warning-driven intervention, expanded community engagement, and improved multi-agency coordination enabled by the OSPRE platform.

The report, which draws on data from over 2,400 community focal points across Borno, Yobe, Adamawa, Gombe, Taraba, and Bauchi states, documents a measurable shift in the nature of conflict dynamics in the region. While structural drivers of insecurity persist, the capacity to detect and interrupt escalation cycles has improved substantially.

Key findings from the 2026 report include: a 34% decrease in displacement incidents compared to the 2024 baseline; a 41% improvement in early warning lead times (average of 72 hours before incident escalation); a 28% increase in successful community-led de-escalation interventions; and a 19% reduction in reported casualties in OSPRE-covered areas.

The report also identifies persistent challenges, including the continued threat of non-state armed group activity in border zones, climate-driven resource conflicts in agricultural communities, and gaps in last-mile response capacity in remote LGAs.

Dr. Fatima Al-Hassan, OSPRE's Head of Research and Analytics, noted that the data presents both cause for optimism and a clear mandate for continued investment. These numbers represent real lives protected — families that remained in their homes, communities that held together. But the underlying conditions that drive conflict have not been resolved. Sustained, evidence-based engagement remains essential.

The full report, including all datasets, methodology notes, and state-level disaggregated analysis, is available for download through the OSPRE Resources portal.